Estimating Long-run Elasticity between Crude Oil Consumption, Real Oil Price, and Real GDP in Global Markets

Aysar Y.  Fahad; Ahmad Hussein  Battal; Asmaa  Yaseen

doi:10.52866/ijcsm.2023.02.02.009

Estimating Long-run Elasticity between Crude Oil Consumption, Real Oil Price, and Real GDP in Global Markets

Authors

Aysar Y. Fahad College of Administration and Economics, finance and banking department, Al Iraqia University, Baghdad, IRAQ
Ahmad Hussein Battal College of Administration and Economics, University of Anbar, IRAQ Organization Address, Anbar, 2154, Iraq
Asmaa Yaseen senior modeling and forecasting analyst at OPEC, Vienna, Austria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52866/ijcsm.2023.02.02.009

Keywords:

Keywords: crude oil consumption elasticity, oil prices, real GDP, DOLS, PMG/ARDL, Global oil Markets

Abstract

The study examine the long-run relationship between crude oil consumption, real oil price, and real GDP using a quarterly time series from 1993 to 2020. the empirical analysis uses the Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) model for both short-run and long-run elasticity among the model variables to estimate the short-run and long-run elasticity of demand for crude oil consumption in 10 regions using Panel Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) and Pooled Mean Group-AR Distributed Lag Models (PMG/ARDL). The empirical analysis findings confirme that the demand for crude oil internationally is highly insensitive to changes in price and real GDP.

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Published

2023-03-29

How to Cite

[1]

A. Y. . Fahad, A. H. . Battal, and A. . Yaseen, “Estimating Long-run Elasticity between Crude Oil Consumption, Real Oil Price, and Real GDP in Global Markets”, Iraqi Journal For Computer Science and Mathematics, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 109–117, Mar. 2023.